Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 21:00 GMT 13 Mar 24 |
| Prediction | PSV to go through on Penalties! |
| Odds | 2.50 |
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Following a dramatic 1-1 draw in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, PSV Eindhoven heads to Signal Iduna Park with a blend of optimism and determination. Facing the formidable Yellow-Blacks on their home turf, PSV is poised for a battle that could secure their place in the quarterfinals. Riding high in the Eredivisie and potentially amidst their finest season, PSV's ambition is fueled by memories of their 2006/07 RO16 triumph. As they aim to replicate that success, my betting guide offers an in-depth analysis of the Borussia Dortmund vs PSV matchup, complete with the latest odds from my favourite bookies and strategic insights to inform your predictions.
🏆 Borussia Dortmund vs PSV UCL Prediction
The upcoming UEFA Champions League knockout clash between PSV and Borussia Dortmund rekindles a rivalry that has been dormant since the 2002/03 season's group phase, where Dortmund secured a 3-1 victory at Philips Stadion and a subsequent 1-1 draw at Signal Iduna Park. This match marks PSV's first knockout encounter against a German team in the Champions League era, despite a challenging history of 8 losses in 12 group stage matches against German opposition (3 Wins, 1 Draw).
Dortmund's last knockout game against a team from the Netherlands dates back to the 1995/96 quarter-final, where they suffered a 3-0 aggregate defeat to Ajax. With only the first-leg draw in their current head-to-head record, both teams have a significant opportunity to make a mark in the annals of European football.
In this season's campaign, PSV has shown commendable form, securing 2 wins in their last 5 European games and finishing second in a tough group behind Arsenal. Dortmund, meanwhile, has remained undefeated in the Champions League following an initial 2-0 loss to PSG in September, tallying 3 wins and 3 draws. The stakes are high for both sides.
PSV's recent 7-game unbeaten streak across all competitions, which includes 4 wins and an impressive haul of 20 goals, has been spearheaded by captain Luuk De Jong's 8-goal contribution. Despite the Eredivisie's standing relative to the Bundesliga, PSV's squad appears to have a more balanced composition than Dortmund's. As the two teams prepare for a decisive showdown, PSV's resilience suggests they could very well take the contest to its limits and prevail in a dramatic penalty shootout.
My Prediction: 🏆 Dortmund 1 – 1 PSV ⚽
💯 Borussia Dortmund vs PSV UCL Match Odds
You can already access odds on a huge range of Borussia Dortmund vs PSV betting markets, including the match winner, both sides to score and the over/under for total goals scored. Read our bookmaker reviews to know more about the sportsbooks I selected. Let’s take a closer look at the odds across these markets.
🏅 Borussia Dortmund vs PSV: Match Winner
Backing the match winner is the single most popular Borussia Dortmund vs PSV wagering market, at least according to the best UCL bookmakers. BVB have been given the nod as the obvious favourites to qualify thanks to the fact that this second leg is played on German soil. Let's take a look at all of the available odds at these new UK betting sites.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund to Win | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.08 | 2.10 |
| PSV to Win | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.66 | 3.70 |
⚽ Borussia Dortmund vs PSV: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
This season, both Borussia Dortmund and PSV have displayed exceptional goal-scoring form. PSV, in particular, has been prolific, consistently finding the net in both domestic and European competitions, with only one exception, the 4-0 loss to Arsenal. Dortmund's striking force has been equally impressive, with just two instances in the UEFA Champions League where they didn't score—during a goalless draw in Milan and a 2-0 defeat in Paris. These performances translate to 'Both Teams to Score' (BTTS) percentages of 50% for Dortmund and 70% for PSV in their last 10 matches, underscoring the potential for a high-scoring affair. Given that the first leg also ended with goals from both sides, betting on BTTS in the upcoming match could be a wise consideration.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.60 | 1.46 |
| No | 2.40 | 2.43 | 2.43 | 2.30 | 2.40 |
🥅 Borussia Dortmund vs PSV: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The goal-scoring capabilities of both teams have been well-documented, so further elaboration isn’t necessary. However, examining the Over/Under 2.5 goals metric reveals that Dortmund has an even chance—50%—to tip the scale towards Over 2.5 goals in their games. In contrast, PSV has achieved this in only 30% of their UEFA Champions League matches this season. Moreover, Dortmund boasts an average of 2.2 goals per home match, while PSV averages 2.4 goals when playing away. Both teams concede an average of 0.9 goals per game.
Given these statistics, there appears to be a compelling argument for considering the Under 2.5 goals market as a value bet. Now, let’s review the odds offered by the bookmakers:
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.60 | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.30 |
✔️ Borussia Dortmund vs PSV - Betting Tips
If you’ve got any free bets, I think this game will be a good one to use it on. When two teams have hardly ever met before it gets way trickier to predict outcomes. Nevertheless, I will provide you with a few more expert tips that could possibly help secure higher odds and winnings.
- Backing PSV to Win and Both Sides to Score: PSV Eindhoven is priced at around 3.10 to beat PSV, which offers heavy value especially if you commit a huge stake. However, given Dortmund’s pedigree and the potent attacking quality of both sides, you can create a combination wager that backs the Dutchmen to win and both sides to score at a hefty price of 5.00 with 10bet. This unlocks considerably higher odds, albeit at a higher risk.
- Back PSV to qualify: While this betting line is not very popular because many set sights just on the matchwinner odds, it is usually the safer option when we expect game time to exceed 90 mins i.e. extra time and possibly penalties. This encounter looks like one such. You can bet on PSV qualifying at a price of 2.25 with 10bet, This may be lower than a classic PSV winner market but relatively safer.
- Back PSV to be the last team to score: Borussia Dortmund and PSV Eindhoven are renowned for their relentless intensity and aggressive pressing style, making them formidable opponents on the pitch. Their attack-driven approach sets the stage for a thrilling, high-stakes encounter. Notably, PSV Eindhoven has a reputation for pushing the offensive until the final whistle, a strategy that has paid dividends. They have consistently found the back of the net last in a significant number of matches this season, at least 20 times. For those who anticipate this trend to continue, there could be potential betting opportunities to explore with salient odds of 2.25 with Betiton.
1️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update
Borussia Dortmund emerged as the leaders of this UEFA Champions League season's formidable "Group of Death," securing the top spot with an impressive record of 3 wins and 2 draws, and suffering only a single defeat. Entering the first leg against PSV, Dortmund's form was commendable, remaining unbeaten in their last 10 matches across all competitions, with 4 wins and 6 draws. Contrary to expectations of a dominant performance, it was a former PSV player who netted the first goal for Dortmund, only for PSV to level the score later on. In the aftermath, Dortmund experienced a mixed bag of results, with a 2-3 loss to Hoffenheim and a 2-0 victory over Union Berlin. Navigating past the Round of 16 has been a challenge for the Rhine-based club since the 2020/21 season, adding an extra layer of intrigue to their upcoming matches. Below is a recap of their last 5 games:
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund2 Werder1 | 09.03.24 Bundesliga |
| Union Berlin0 Borussia Dortmund2 | 02.03.24 Bundesliga |
| Borussia Dortmund2 Hoffenheim3 | 25.02.24 Bundesliga |
| PSV 1 Borussia Dortmund 1 | 21.02.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Wolfsburg 1 Borussia Dortmund 1 | 17.02.24 Bundesliga |
Borussia Dortmund has suffered a great deal due to injuries. The team has not had the chance to line up its strongest 11 due to this. Some big names will remain sidelined for this encounter including Sebastian Haller, Gregor Kobel, Felix Nmecha and Ole Pohlman and continue to be rated doubtful for the encounter.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Haller | Ankle Injury |
| Gregor Kobel | Muscle Porblems |
| Felix Nmecha | Fitness |
| Ole Pohlman | Unknown injury |
2️⃣ PSV Update
PSV are running away with the Dutch Eredivisie. Week in week out, they absolutely destroy every team they meet drawing only on three occasions so far in the league, the latest being a scintillating top-of-the-table clash with Feyenoord (2-2). After finishing second in Group B behind Arsenal, PSV booked their place in the KO stages for the first time since 2015/16, when they were eliminated at this stage. Mind you the Dutch league leaders are unbeaten in their last six UCL games (2W 4D)
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| PSV 1 Go Ahead Eagles0 | 08.03.24 Eredivisie |
| PSV 2 Feyenoord 2 | 03.03.24 Eredivisie |
| Zwolle 1 PSV 7 | 24.03.24 Eredivisie |
| PSV1 Borussia Dortmund1 | 20.02.24 UEFA Champions League |
| PSV2 Heracles0 | 16.02.24 Eredivisie |
PSV will be without Lucas Ledezma, Guus Till and Noa Lang who have all been out since January.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Lucas Ledezma | Fitness |
| Noa Lang | ACL injury |
| Guus Til | Unknown Injury |
👕 Borussia Dortmund vs PSV - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Borussia Dortmund 4-2-3-1 | PSV Eindhoven 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | A. Meyer | W. Benitez | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | I. Maatsen | S. Dest | Right Back |
| Centre Back | N. Schlotterbeck | O. Boscagli | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Matts Hummels | J. Schouten | Centre Back |
| Left Back | J. Ryerson | J. Teze | Left Back |
| Midfielder | E. Can | I. Saibari | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | M. Sabitzer | J. Veerman | Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | M. Reus | Malik Tillman | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | G. Martinelli | I. Lozano | Wide Forward |
| Striker | N. Fullkrug | Luuk De Jong | Striker |
| Wide Forward | Jadon Sancho | Johan Bakayoko | Wide Forward |
✒️ Yato Katte – Expert Tipster
Yato is a seasoned sports writer and tipster deeply immersed in football, basketball, and mixed martial arts. He reveres Messi as the ultimate athlete and bleeds Chelsea-blue as a devoted supporter. With numerous published articles and predictions, Yato aims to carve a prominent niche in the iGaming industry, offering insightful betting strategies.
