Christmas Premier League Predictions - Matchday 18
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| Timetable | 21st - 24th Dec 23 |
| Prediction | Arsenal to Win |
| Odds | Betiton |
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The EPL’s packed festive schedule kicks off with nine matches in four days between December 21st and Christmas Eve. Defending champions Manchester City aren’t in action as they participate in the FIFA Club World Cup, so Arsenal could go eight points clear at the top with a victory over Liverpool at Anfield. The Reds or Aston Villa may also be top at Christmas, with the teams that have achieved this objective having lifted the title in 10 of the last 15 seasons!
My Prediction: 🏆 Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Man United, Fulham, Luton, Bournemouth, Arsenal and Wolves to win / Spurs and Everton to draw ⚽
Christmas Fixtures Matchday 18 – Overview
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City’s participation in the FIFA Club World Cup means that nine Premier League matches will take place in gameweek 18. Here’s a summary of these matches and my expert betting tips!
| Date | Match | Tip |
|---|---|---|
| 21st December | Crystal Palace v Brighton | Crystal Palace to win and under 2.5 goals |
| 22nd December | Aston Villa v Sheffield United | Aston Villa to win with a handicap of -1.75 goals |
| 23rd December | West Ham v Man United | Man United to win and under 2.5 goals |
| 23rd December | Fulham v Burnley | Fulham to win and both teams to score |
| 23rd December | Luton v Newcastle | Luton to win |
| 23rd December | Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth | Bournemouth to win and both teams to score |
| 23rd December | Tottenham v Everton | Back the draw |
| 23rd December | Liverpool v Arsenal | Arsenal to win and both teams to score |
| 24th December | Wolves v Chelsea | Wolves to win and under 2.5 goals |
Crystal Palace v Brighton
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Brighton’s strong early season form is now a thing of the past, with the Seagulls having won just two of their last 10 matches and once on the road since September 16th. They haven’t beaten Palace at Selhurst Park since March 9th, 2019, drawing four successive games since Anthony Knockaert secured a 2-1 win. While Palace have lost their last four home matches and triumphed just once at Selhurst Park since the start of the season, they achieved a morale-boosting 2-2 draw at Man City last time out. Overall, I’m backing Palace to win with under 2.5 goals at a price of 6.55 at Spreadex Sports.
| Team | .png) | .png) | .png) | .png) | .png) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to Win and Under 2.5 goals | 6.55 | 6.55 | TBA | 6.00 | TBA |
Aston Villa v Sheffield United
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Villa could go top of the league if they secure a 16th successive home win over struggling Sheffield United on December 22nd, while a subsequent draw between Liverpool and Arsenal would see them stay there on Christmas Day. The Villains have won all eight of their EPL home matches so far in 2023/24, scoring 25 goals and conceding just five during this run. Conversely, Chris Wilder’s Blades are winless on the road and have lost seven of their eight away matches, while they’ve scored just four goals on their travels. So, there’s value in backing Villa to win with a European handicap of -1 at a price of 1.54 withTonyBet.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to Win With a Handicap of -1 Goal | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.54 | TBA |
West Ham vs Man Utd
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While Man United showcased some defensive resilience and organisation in their 0-0 draw at Anfield at the weekend, they’ve lost eight EPL games on the road in 2023 and five in all competitions this season alone. Still, they’ve only been beaten once away from home in their last six Premier League matches, while the Hammers have won just three of their previous seven encounters at the London Stadium. The Red Devils have fared well in tight games this season (all but one of their away wins have been by a single goal), so I’m tipping them to win with under 2.5 goals at a price of 6.85 with Betiton.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United to Win With Under 2.5 Goals Scored | 6.85 | 6.85 | 5.20 | 6.00 | TBA |
Fulham v Burnley
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Despite Fulham scoring 16 goals in their last five Premier League matches, the loss of in-form striker Raul Jimenez to suspension will significantly blunt the Cottagers attack here. However, their struggling opponents have only won once on the road in eight EPL outings in 2023/24, while they’ve lost four of their previous five away games and conceded 10 goals during this sequence. Interestingly, Vincent Kompany’s team have also scored in five of their eight away clashes, including their visit to Arsenal on November 11th. So, get on Fulham to win and both teams to score at a price of 3.41 with Mr Mega.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to Win and Both Teams to Score | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.50 | 3.20 | TBA |
Luton v Newcastle
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Luton have largely impressed in their 2023/24 EPL campaign, with none of their five defeats at Kenilworth Road being by more than a single goal. Rob Edwards’ team is also tenacious and defensively well organised, while they’ve won 54.5% of their tackles in the competition (the second highest figure behind Arsenal). As for Newcastle, they’ve struggled on the road and have just one win on their travels, while they’ve lost their previous three away games and shipped 17 goals in eight matches overall. So, there’s value in backing Luton to earn a surprise win at a 4.90 price at Mr Mega.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luton to Win | 4.90 | 4.90 | 4.80 | 4.20 | TBA |
Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth
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While Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth failed to win any of their first nine EPL matches in 2023/24, they’ve won five out of seven since adjusting to the Spanish coach’s aggressive counter-pressing tactics. The Cherries have also completed an impressive 857 ball recoveries so far this term, while they thrashed Man United 3-0 at Old Trafford in their previous away game. Forest are also on a run of just one win in 10 and haven’t triumphed at the City Ground since November 5th, so I think there’s value in backing Bournemouth to win and both teams to score at a price of 4.86 with Betiton.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to Win and Both Teams to Score | 4.86 | 4.86 | 4.80 | 4.33 | TBA |
Tottenham v Everton
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Not only have Everton won seven of their last 10 EPL games and earned 22 points from the previous 30 available to them, but Sean Dyche’s well-drilled outfit have kept four successive clean sheets since a 3-0 defeat to Man United on November 26th. They haven’t conceded on the road since November 11th, and Spurs could find it hard to break them down in the absence of James Maddison (who has created 2.36 chances per 90 this season) and Giovani Lo Celso. So, there’s value in backing the draw here at a price of 4.05 with Mr Mega.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 3.60 | TBA |
Liverpool v Arsenal
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While Liverpool haven’t been wholly convincing during the last 18 months, they’ve lost just one of their last EPL 28 matches and haven’t been beaten at Anfield since Leeds escaped with a 2-1 win on October 29th, 2022. However, Man United snapped a seven-game winning run for the Reds at Anfield by leaving with a 0-0 draw last weekend, while Arsenal are tough to beat on the road and have kept four clean sheets away from home in 2023/24. Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz are also hitting top form for the Gunners, so I’m tipping them to win and both teams to score at a price of 5.00 with William Hill.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score | 4.90 | 4.90 | 5.00 | 4.33 | TBA |
Wolves v Chelsea
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Chelsea’s EPL record wreaks of inconsistency, with the Blues having won six, lost seven and drawn four of their 17 matches so far. They’ve found life particularly hard on their travels too, losing three successive away matches while shipping eight goals against Newcastle, Man United and Everton. Interestingly, Wolves are now unbeaten in six home matches since a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool on September 16th, while they’ve already defeated Man City and Spurs at Molineux in 2023/24. They’re a well-organised outfit too, so get on them to defeat Chelsea with under 2.5 goals at a price of 8.20 with Betiton.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves to Win With Under 2.5 Goals Scored | 8.20 | 8.20 | 8.50 | 7.50 | TBA |
Matchday 18 Accumulator Betting
There aren’t many one-sided or easy-to-call EPL matches in gameweek 18, so accumulator betting on this round of fixtures is definitely not for the faint-hearted. However, if you have an appetite for risk and are willing to stake a responsible amount, you could consider building a five-fold acca that backs Aston Villa, Man United, Fulham, Bournemouth and Wolves to win their respective games.
Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
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Lewis's wider sports writing, which covers horse racing, boxing and the UFC, has also been featured on several websites, including Yahoo Sports, 90 Minutes, and Think Football Ideas. He currently provides expert betting tips for selected EPL games, and you can find out more about him here.
