Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Liverpool vs Manchester City EPL Prediction

These two teams met in the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium on November 25th, sharing the spoils in a tense 1-1 draw. City controlled possession here and were more of a threat in the attacking third, producing an xG of 1.53 (compared to just 0.72 for the Reds). However, Liverpool grew stronger as the match progressed, eventually equalising through Trent Alexander-Arnold’s superb late strike.

This clash was a war of attrition at times as both teams struggled to consistently impose their game plan and style of play. Little will change at Anfield where Liverpool, who have completed 1,451 ball recoveries and attempted 81 tackles in the final third in 2023/24, like to deploy aggressive and ceaseless counter-pressing to disrupt the opposition.

Conversely, City will strive to control the tempo of the game and dominate possession. Pep Guardiola’s men have completed a staggering 92.88% of their short and medium passes so far this season.

So, although Liverpool and Man City average 3.63 and 4.00 shot-creating actions per 90 respectively in 2023/24, I expect much of this match to take place in the middle of the park. The action will also be compacted by each side’s average defensive line with City conducting their defensive actions 50.57 metres away from their goal line.

Liverpool’s average defensive line measures 47.95 metres from their goal and neither side is likely to compromise this or take a backward step in such an important game. However, it’s hard to escape the magnitude of this EPL matchup, and the simple fact remains that both teams would probably be happy with a draw given the potential consequences of defeat.

💯 Liverpool vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds

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🏅 Liverpool vs Manchester City: Match Winner

Notwithstanding Liverpool’s dominance over Man City at Anfield in the EPL era, the Reds are the betting underdogs to win here at an average price of 2.90. This implies a 34.48% probability of a home win. City can be backed at around 2.20 to prevail which gives them a 45.45% chance of securing a potentially pivotal victory on Merseyside. The draw is priced at 3.75, so this is the statistically least likely outcome with an implied probability of 26.66%.

Team
Liverpool to Win	2.90	2.90	2.81	2.81	2.90
Man City to Win	2.20	2.25	2.15	2.15	2.22
Draw	3.70	3.80	3.70	3.70	3.80

⚽ Liverpool vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

Overall, both teams have scored in 67% of Liverpool’s 27 league matches this season, with this percentage increasing to 77% at Anfield. The Reds have kept five clean sheets at home with only Man United having stopped them from scoring in front of their fans. Both sides have found the net in 62% of City’s 13 away matches (including three of their previous four) and their clean sheet at Bournemouth was their first in seven road trips since October 29th.

Yes/No
Yes	1.44	1.43	1.40	1.40	1.45
No	2.70	2.63	2.65	2.65	2.62

🥅 Liverpool vs Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Man City’s increased defensive vulnerability has been most evident on the road, as despite scoring slightly less on their travels, some 77% of their away matches in 2023/24 have seen over 2.5 goals scored. This has occurred in just 50% of their home games. Interestingly, 77% of Liverpool’s 13 home matches have yielded over 2.5 goals, although the Reds have scored 37 of the 48 goals registered at Anfield this season.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.50	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.50
Under 2.5 Goals	2.55	2.55	2.47	2.47	2.54

1️⃣ Liverpool Update

We’ve already touched on Liverpool’s impressive unbeaten run at Anfield - Leeds United were the last opposition team to triumph here on October 29th, 2022. However, this remains the Reds’ only defeat in their previous 54 league matches at Anfield, following Fulham’s shock 1-0 victory on Merseyside back in March 2021. Liverpool have also scored more goals at home than any other side (37) this season, while only Man United and Arsenal have escaped Anfield without defeat. Overall, the Reds have lost just one of their last 20 EPL matches, accumulating 14 wins and 47 points during this timeframe.

Mo Salah is nearing a return after a thigh complaint and is likely to at least make the squad for the visit of Man City. Midfield pair Curtis Jones (ankle injury) and Ryan Gravenberch (foot) may also feature against the Citizens, but goalkeeper Alisson (hamstring) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) remain unavailable for selection. Striker Diogo Jota (knee) has been ruled out until April, and Thiago (thigh) and Stefan Bajcetic (general fitness) are still weeks away from making a competitive appearance. Of course, the Reds remain without seasoned centre back Joel Matip who is out until September with an ACL rupture.

2️⃣ Man City Update

Man City have been in imperious form since a surprise 2-2 draw at home to Crystal Palace on December 16th, winning 15 of 16 matches in four different competitions and only dropping points at home to Chelsea in the Premier League. They’re also unbeaten in 19 matches in all competitions since a 1-0 defeat at an inspired Aston Villa side on December 6th. They’ve also won nine of their previous 10 EPL games and have taken 28 points from the last 30 available to them. This sustained run of form has been in part inspired by the return of Kevin De Bruyne from injury with the Belgian contributing 11 assists in just 13 appearances this season and creating 1.77 chances per 90.

Croatian defender Joško Gvardiol returned from injury during the derby win over Manchester United, although he failed to make an appearance from the bench. This leaves winger Jack Grealish as City’s only confirmed absentee at the time of writing with a groin injury likely to keep him sidelined until the end of March.

👕 Liverpool vs Man City - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.