Dutch Grand Prix Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds

📋 Dutch Grand Prix - Some Key Statistics

• The first ever Grand Prix at the Zandvoort Circuit (during the pre-F1 era in 1948) was won by Prince Bira. He remained the only Thai driver to race in Formula 1, until Alexander Albon debuted at the Australian GP in 2019.
• Former driver Jo Bonner recorded the sole win, podium and pole position of his entire F1 career at the Dutch GP in 1959. This was also the first of 17 F1 wins and 11 pole positions for the BRM team.
• The legendary Jim Clark remains the most successful ever driver at the Dutch Grand Prix. The Brit prevailed at Zandvoort on four single occasions, in 1963, 1964, 1965 and 1967.

🏎️ The Dutch Grand Prix - Zandvoort Circuit Overview

It was during the 1930s that motorsport aficionados decided to organise a competitive race in Zandvoort. The first event here was held on a temporary street circuit, and after significant success, work started on a permanent construction in the region. This yielded the now iconic Zandvoort Circuit, which hosted its first official race on August 7th, 1949.

The circuit has been a regular on the F1 calendar since 1952, while upgrades conducted during the 1970s introduced an array of new safety features. In 1999, the track was extended to a its full Grand Prix length of 4.259km, which earmarks it as one of the shorter circuits on the calendar.

However, it’s also one of the most challenging, with 14 turns of variable difficulty and run-areas that comprise ruthless gravel beds. Cars can achieve a top speed of 305km/h on the straight, and in many ways the circuit is a throwback to the F1 tracks of the 1970s and 80s. Sure, recent work was done to increase the banking angle at the so-called “Tarzan” corner to 18 degrees, but this remains one of the toughest F1 circuits around!

💯 Dutch Grand Prix Betting Odds

After his recent winless streak, Verstappen his only the second favourite to win the Dutch GP at around 2.85. Instead, McLaren’s Lando Norris will start as the pre-race favourite in Zandvoort, with his average price of 2.75 implying a 36.36% of his emerging victorious. Interestingly, there have been four different winners in the previous five F1 races, with this number including Oscar Piastri and veteran Lewis Hamilton. The latter is particularly competitively priced at around 11.00, and while this implies a win probability of just 9.09%, he has triumphed in both Belgium and the UK since June 30th. Here’s an overview of the latest win market prices on the new betting sites ahead of the event.

Driver
Lando Norris	2.75	2.75	2.75	2.75	2.75
Max Verstappen	2.85	2.88	2.85	2.85	2.85
Oscar Piastri	6.50	6.50	6.60	6.50	6.50
George Russell	11.00	11.00	11.00	11.00	11.00
Lewis Hamilton	11.00	11.00	11.00	11.00	11.00
Charles Leclerc	19.00	19.00	19.00	19.00	19.00
Carlos Sainz	26.00	26.00	26.00	26.00	26.00
Sergio Perez	34.00	34.00	35.00	34.00	34.00

🔍 Dutch Grand Prix Betting Tips

Now that you’ve seen the pre-race odds and got to grips with the Zandvoort Circuit, the question that remains is what are the best and highest value betting markets ahead of the 2024 Dutch Grand Prix? Below, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you make the most of your F1 bankroll!

• Tip 1: Pick Max Verstappen to Win: Verstappen’s four race winless streak is his worst such run since 2020, while the same can be said of his Red Bull team. However, the two-week mid-season break will have allowed both to reset, while the technical team will have undoubtedly made improvements to the car. At the same time, Verstappen has won three consecutive Dutch GP’s in front of his adoring home fans, while he boasts the requisite speed and driving skills to thrive in any conditions at Zandvoort. What’s more, he can be backed to win at a price of 2.75 with No Bonus Sports, which is arguably a little long given his pedigree and historic performance at the track.
• Tip 2: Back Oscar Piastri to Record a Podium Finish: The talented 23-year-old Oscar Piastri has been in superb form of late, earning three podium finishes in his last four races and even winning a maiden F1 race in Hungary on July 21st. He only finished +1.173 seconds behind Lewis Hamilton when placing second in Belgium last time out too, and he has clearly benefitted from McLaren’s decision to fit a new front wing and adjust their front suspension geometry. A driver of his skillset is also well-suited to the winding Zandvoort Circuit, so get on Piastri to record another podium finish here at a price of 6.00 with Myriad Play Sports.
• Tip 3: Back George Russell to Win: If you want to back an outside driver to win the Dutch Grand Prix, Mercedes’ George Russell represents an excellent pick. He was only denied his second win of the campaign at the Spa-Francorchamps via disqualification, as extensive tyre and plank wear left his vehicle too light at the end of the race. He has also benefitted from several Mercedes’ improvements, including tweaks to the brake drums (ducts) and front wing. You can get on Russell to win in the Netherlands at the enhanced price of 11.00 with Betiton.

💨 My F1 Dutch Grand Prix Prediction

Verstappen cut a frustrated figure before the mid-season break, launching a foul-mouthed tirade against his teammates during the Hungarian Grand Prix and being hit with a 10-place grid penalty in Belgium. In this respect, the break will have come at the best possible time for Verstappen and Red Bull, creating an opportunity to reset and refocus throughout the team.

At the same time, the Dutchman has an imperious recent record at the Zandvoort Circuit, winning three times consecutively since 2021. He also started on pole position in each of these races. Verstappen’s winning margin across was +28.747 seconds too, so he has tended to win comfortably and lead from the front throughout.

It’s also hard to see Verstappen’s losing streak continue, especially after his recent period of extended dominance. Remember, he has still won exactly 50% of the races contested so far in 2024 and 26 of his previous 36 dating back to the start of the 2023 campaign, while he remains the quickest and arguably most talented driver on the circuit.

Of course, he won’t have it all his own way in the Netherlands. The improvements made by McLaren and Mercedes have certainly closed the gap on Red Bull, enabling them to win the previous four F1 races between them. This brings drivers like Piastri, Hamilton, Russell and starting favourite Lando Norris into play, and I don’t expect any driver to win by a landslide here.

However, Verstappen is long overdue a victory and will have reset both mentally and physically during the mid-season break. He can also rely on his love of the Zandvoort Circuit and his recent record there, and I’m tipping him to get back to winning ways in his home country.