F1 Italian Grand Prix Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - Autodromo Nazionale Monza

📋 Italian Grand Prix - Key Points

• The Autodromo Nazionale di Monza is the seventh-longest circuit being used in the 2024 Formula 1 season, covering 5.793 km (or 3.600 miles) in total.
• Michael Schumacher and current driver Lewis Hamilton are the most successful drivers at Monza, winning the Italian Grand Prix five times each. However, Max Verstappen has prevailed in the last two iterations of the Italian Grand Prix, winning by +6.064 seconds in 2023.
• Monza is synonymous with the Italian Grand Prix, hosting all but one iteration of the race since its inception in 1950. This occurred in 1980, when the track at Imola assumed hosting duties.

🏎️ Italian Grand Prix - Circuit Overview

The iconic Monza Circuit sits just to the north of Milan, and has the distinction of being the world’s third purpose-built motor racing circuit (after Brooklands and Indianapolis). Constructed in 1922, it’s the oldest and most famous racetrack in mainland Europe, and this weekend it will host its 94th Grand Prix.

The Monza Circuit measures 5.793 km (3.600 miles), and is the seventh-longest track currently in use during the F1 season. However, it’s also considered to be one of the more simplistic tracks in the sport, while its very long straights and tight chicanes help to make it the fastest on the Formula 1 calendar. It has held this particular status since 1991.

It certainly provides a stark contrast to tougher street circuits such as Monte Carlo, which are defined by tight corners considerably fewer straights. The layout and innate speed of the track requires drivers to prioritise traction and good breaking stability, so the strategy adopted by each team is just as important as individual driver performance at Monza.

Track highlights include the high speed ‘Curva Grande’, which is located immediately after the Variante del Rettifilo at the end of the front straight. Due to its positioning, drivers usually take this high speed curve flat out, creating a challenging manoeuvre that demands a high quality of execution.

💯 F1 Italian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Lando Norris has started the previous three GPs as the narrow betting favourite, and his dominant win in the Netherlands means that this trend will continue this weekend. In fact, he can be backed at around 2.00 to win the Italian Grand Prix, implying a 50% probability of Norris recording consecutive F1 victories for the first time.

Last year’s winner Verstappen is priced at 3.75 to record his first win in five at Monza, suggesting that he has just a 26.66% of snapping a five race losing streak. Here’s a summary of the latest odds from the UK's best new betting sites!

Pilot
Lando Norris	1.99	1.99	2.10	2.00	2.00
Max Verstappen	3.80	3.80	3.50	3.75	3.75
Oscar Piastri	7.00	7.00	7.00	6.50	5.75
Charles Leclerc	11.50	11.50	13.00	12.00	11.00
Carlos Sainz	15.30	15.30	15.00	15.00	15.00
Lewis Hamilton	15.80	15.80	17.00	16.00	16.00
George Russell	16.40	16.40	17.00	17.00	17.00
Sergio Perez	57.00	57.00	67.00	61.00	61.00

✔️ Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips

Before I offer my own Italian Grand Prix prediction, I’m going to provide some expert betting tips and insights. These will help you to explore a broader range of available betting markets, while they’re also based on real-time odds!

• Bet on Lando Norris to Win Again: Norris was completely dominant at the Zandvoort Circuit last weekend, winning by a staggering +22.896 seconds (the biggest margin of the season) and recording the fastest lap time of 1:13.817. What’s more, his McLaren car is a literal rocket on the straights, with the vehicle’s penchant for straightforward and low downforce tracks perfectly suited to the layout at Monza. McLaren have also won two of the last three GPs and sit just 30 points behind Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship, so get on Norris to ride this wave of momentum and triumph again at a price of 2.10 with 10Bet.
• Bet on Oscar Piastri to Record a Podium Finish: Norris’ McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri will also relish the Monza track, while he placed fourth at Zandvoort (with a fastest lap of 1:14.237) and has earned an impressive three podium finishes in his previous five outings. The 23-year-old is an incredibly talented driver who will also benefit from McLaren’s capacity for high speeds on the straight, and I expect him to secure another top-three finish at the Italian GP. You can get on this at the competitive price of 1.98 with Myriad Play Sports.
• Pick McLaren to Record the Fastest Lap at Monza: Even without McLaren’s explosive straight speed and penchant for low downforce tracks, this constructor boasts two of the sport’s most consistent and talented drivers in Norris and Piastri. They’re more than capable of maximising McLaren’s natural advantages at Monza and navigating the aforementioned Curva Grande at top speed, and the smart money is on one of these drivers achieving the fastest lap overall. You can back a McLaren driver to achieve this objective at the highly competitive price of 2.15 with MyriadPlay Sports.

💨 F1 Italian Grand Prix Prediction

While Verstappen retains a healthy 70-point lead in the Drivers’ Championship and continues to secure podium finishes, a winless streak of five races represents his worst run of form in four years. Even more worryingly, he was unable to cope with the relentless speed and power of Norris’ McLaren at Zandvoort, and things may get worse before they improve for the Dutchman.

While Red Bull are a well-rounded team and more than capable of performing well in Monza, they undoubtedly fare better on twisting and turning street circuits like Monza. They’ll certainly find it hard to outdo McLaren on the long, unforgiving straights of the Monza Circuit, so Verstappen may well see his winless run extended at the end of the Italian GP.

Of course, Verstappen is always competitive and a good performance is qualification will be key to determining precisely where he finishes. However, he was simply blown away in the Netherlands by an inspired Norris, who dominated both qualifying and the race from the outset. He may be even quicker and formidable at Monza, where teammate Piastri will arguably pose the biggest threat to Norris recording a second successive GP win.

While Verstappen has triumphed in the last two Italian Grand Prixs, McLaren have made marked improvements of late and finally unleashed their optimal speed on straight power tracks. This will surely bare fruit in Monza, where I’m tipping Norris to win and further close the gap on McLaren at the top of the Drivers’ Championship.

🔍 Betting on the 2024 Italian Grand Prix

• View the track layout and historic performances, including previous winners and lap times
• When you analyse the layout of the circuit, relate your findings to each constructor and their individual drivers
• Be sure to follow all free practice and qualifying rounds at Monza. This will unlock further betting and performance insights ahead of the main race

🏁 Betting on Italian Grand Prix - Our Conclusion

Picking GP winners is not as easy as it used to be, despite the fact that Verstappen has won 26 of the last 37 races since the beginning of 2023. He isn’t the pre-race favourite at Monza either, with McLaren’s Lando Norris boasting the shortest win market odds after his dominant win in Holland last week. McLaren’s car is also tailormade for the straights at Monza, so I expect Norris to record a second successive win in the Italian Grand Prix.

💶 F1 Italian Grand Prix Free Bets

Before you wager your hard-earned cash on the Italian GP, I’d recommend that you compare the best available free bet offers. Here’s a summary of the latest promotions from the sites featured in our detailed bookmarker review section !

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