Does Changing a Premier League Manager Improve Results
11/10/2024 17:10:41
With so much speculation swirling around about the futures of certain Premier League managers, the question that must be asked is, if a club changes their manager during a season do their performances and points return improve or get worse?
Premier League teams have undeniably pulled back from the era of changing permanent managers on a wholesale level over the last season or two. From a League high of 14 mid-season managerial changes in 2022/23, there were only 4 during the 2023/24 season and so far at the time of writing there hasn’t been any during the 2024/25 campaign yet.
Does Sacking the Manager Work?
According to Sky Sports, the chances of a side in the relegation zone avoiding the drop after changing their manager is around 42%, which equates to 33 teams out of 78. That leaves the chances of a club still going down to the Championship after changing their manager at 58%.
The chances of a team getting relegated alter depending on what position they are in at the time of managerial change also. If a club waits until they have hit rock bottom in the table, there is a far better chance of the club being relegated than if the club does it when they are in 18th or even 19th position.
When is the best time to Change Manager?
Over the last three seasons when managerial changes have been at record levels, the timing of a sacking has appeared to be the most important thing. Strike early and give the new manager as much time as possible to improve the club’s fortunes is the mantra of most clubs when changing their manager.
2023/24 Managerial Changes
Last season Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest changed their bosses before Christmas and had contrasting fortunes. Sheffield United points per game went up slightly from 0.36 under Paul Heckingbottom to 0.45 under Chris Wilder, but they still found themselves relegated while Nottingham Forest went from scoring 0.82 points per game under Steve Cooper to 1.05 points per game under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Crystal Place also changed their manager, but not until February when Oliver Glasner replaced Roy Hodgson, and they jumped from scoring 1 point per game under Hodgson to 1.84 points per game under Glasner finishing the season in 10th position.
2022/23 Managerial Changes
During the 2022/23 season when 14 permanent departures were made by Premier League football managers, of those changes made by clubs before Christmas only Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Wolves points per game total improved out of the 6 changes that took place in Premier League dugouts. Of the remaining 8 changes made after Christmas of the 2022/23 season, only Everton when they replaced Frank Lampard with Sean Dyche and Crystal Palace when Roy Hodgson took over from Patrick Vieira saw any improvements in their points performance.
'From a League high of 14 mid-season managerial changes in 2022/23, there were only 4 during the 2023/24 season and so far at the time of writing there hasn’t been any during the 2024/25 campaign yet.'
What About this Season?
Up to now no managerial changes have taken place in the Premier League, the latest time that there hasn’t been a managerial departure at a Premier League club since the 2020/21 season. There could be several factors in this. Apart from Manchester United and maybe West Ham United and Crystal Palace, clubs may feel that they are where they are expected to be in the table.
The three promoted clubs are all down near the bottom of the table so some clubs may, for now, feel comfortable with where they are. Palace may start to get concerned if no upturn in form is evident after the October international break, while West Ham may give Julen Lopetegui more time as he beds into his new club with a whole host of new signings.
Who is Under Pressure
The obvious one of course is Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag. The Dutchman is into his third full season in charge but has just led United to their worst ever start to a Premier League season after 7 matches, beating the record he set last season.
Sean Dyche and Gary O’ Neil are two other bosses who might be looking over their shoulders during the international break. Dyche may have picked up 4 points in his last 2 games but the start to the season has been poor for the Toffees, and with a potential new owner taking control of the club the former Burnley boss may find himself under pressure. O’ Neil now finds himself as the 2nd favourite after Ten Hag to be the first manager to leave their job this season. His Wolves side find themselves bottom of the table after 7 games, without a win, and despite receiving the backing of the club’s hierarchy after their dismal 5-3 loss to Brentford, he could be in trouble if results don’t pick up.
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✒️ Liam Lacey – Football and GAA Sports Expert
Liam Lacey, a sportswriter hailing from County Laois, Ireland, focuses on GAA and football, though he also considers himself quite the tennis enthusiast. Liam has covered everything from the All Ireland Gaelic Football and Hurling Championships to the Premier League, Champions League, and international football, providing expert analysis, match previews, and predictions—sometimes even hitting the mark!
