Wales vs Italy: Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - Rugby Six Nations
| Timetable | 14:15 GMT - 16th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Italy to win |
| Odds | 3.40 |
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13 of 15 of our Six Nations Betting Predictions.
Written by Sheldon Muchmore.
Prediction accuracy 2024: ✔️ 77.78%
I was not available to do the previous round of 2024 Six Nations matches, so you were left in the capable hands of Steven Brown, but I am back and raring to go for the final round of matches. As always, all Round 5 matches are played on what is deemed Super Saturday, with the first match of the day seeing Wales take on Italy at 14:15 GMT.
Mathieu Raynal from France will be the man in the middle for this one, and he will be assisted on the touchlines by Chris Busby (Ireland) and Morné Ferreira (South Africa). Ireland's Joy Neville is the woman in charge of the TMO for the day.
This match will have no bearing on who will win the 2024 Six Nations, but both teams will be desperate to avoid picking up the wooden spoon, which is given to the team that finishes last. Which team will be able to finish off their campaign in style? Well, let's kick on with my Wales v Italy prediction and see.
💯 Wales v Italy Betting Odds Six Nations
One of the things that makes rugby betting so popular among sports bettors, even those who do not consider themselves to be huge fans of rugby, is the fact that there are so many rugby markets that punters can try their luck on. However, I am going to focus on the three most popular markets, which are match winner, 3-way handicap, and Asian handicap.
Below I have given you five quality bookies that are offering these markets for this Wales vs Italy clash. If you want to find out more about these bookies before registering with them, then you can do so by clicking on the logos in the table - this will take you to our in-depth bookmaker reviews.
🥇 Wales v Italy Match Winner Odds
Wales are usually the overwhelming favourites when this fixture rolls around each year, and it is no different this year - probably due to the fact that Wales are playing at home. However, the odds for an Italy win are as short as they would have been in a long time. Usually, they are not given a sniff, especially when they are playing away from the Stadio Olimpico, but they have shown glimpses of their quality in this Championship. Below are the Wales vs Italy match winner odds:
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Draw | 20.50 | 20.50 | 23.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 |
| Italy | 3.13 | 3.13 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
➕ Wales v Italy Handicap 3-Way Odds
If you want to put money on Wales to win this game, but you do not really like the odds that are available, then you can consider giving them a 3-way handicap to lengthen the odds and make them more appealing. When you give a team a handicap, you are giving them a points deduction before the first whistle has been blown. Below are the best 3-way handicap betting odds that you can make use of for this Wales vs Italy clash:
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales(0-8) | - | - | 1.91 | >1.85 | 1.85 |
| Wales(0-9) | 1.92 | 1.92 | - | - | - |
| Wales(0-14) | - | - | - | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Draw(0-8) | - | - | 17.00 | >26.00 | 26.00 |
| Draw(0-9) | 17.60 | 17.60 | - | - | - |
| Draw(0-14) | - | - | - | 26.00 | 26.00 |
| Italy(0-8) | - | - | 1.91 | >1.95 | 1.95 |
| Italy(0-9) | 1.78 | 1.78 | - | - | - |
| Italy(0-14) | - | - | - | 1.41 | 1.41 |
🏮 Wales v Italy Asian Handicap Odds
If you decide to give Wales a 9-point handicap and they win by 9 points, you will not win your bet since the result will go down as a draw. It is annoying when this happens, but you can get rid of this scenario, if you wish, by making use of Asian handicap betting - there will be a .5 added to eliminate the draw potential. You can see the Asian handicap betting odds for this Wales vs Italy match below:
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales (-2.5) | - | - | - | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Wales (-8.5) | 1.84 | 1.84 | - | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Wales (-14.5) | - | - | - | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Italy (+2.5) | - | - | - | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Italy (+8.5) | 1.78 | 1.78 | - | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Italy (+14.5) | - | - | - | 1.36 | 1.36 |
Odds are accurate at the time of writing. Odds are subject to change.
🔍 Wales v Italy Winner Prediction
Both teams are under pressure to perform in this match, but there is probably more pressure on Warren Gatland as he is probably unsure as to whether he will still be Wales’s manager this time next year. There are plenty of factors that we can look at to help us choose our winner, so let's take a look at those now.
History
These two teams have played each other 32 times, and Wales have 28 wins to Italy's three. There has been just the one draw between Wales and Italy. When you look at past history, everything points to a Wales win.
Last Performances
| Wales Matches | Result |
|---|---|
| Wales vs Scotland | 26-27 |
| England vs Wales | 16-14 |
| Ireland vs Wales | 31-7 |
| Wales vs France | 24-45 |
| Italy Matches | Result |
|---|---|
| Italy vs England | 24-27 |
| Ireland vs Italy | 36-0 |
| France vs Italy | 13-13 |
| Italy vs Scotland | 31-29 |
Wales have had a very poor Six Nations campaign, and are currently in a position to claim the unwanted wooden spoon. They have played well in patches throughout the competition, but they have fallen short come the final whistle in every match. The Italians, by their usual standard, have had a great tournament, drawing with France and overcoming Scotland. So, overall, Italy seem to be in better form ahead of this match, so recent performance tells a different story to history.
World Rankings
Wales sit in 8th place in the world rankings, while Italy are currently in 10th place. The rankings can give a good idea as to who will go on and win because they are based on recent results over the last year or so, but in this case, the rankings are not worth paying too much attention to as they are so close.
Home Advantage
There will be over 70,000 Welsh men, women, and children cheering the country towards victory on Saturday afternoon, while there will be just a spattering of Italian fans. Wales have a clear advantage when it comes to this factor.
The Weather
The weather is expected to be 13°C with some rain and cloud cover. This might give the Welsh a small advantage, but I am pretty sure the Italian players are used to such conditions.
Game Play Styles
Four games in, and it seems that Gatland is still not sure as to what the best style of play for his side is. Their style has been inconsistent throughout the competition, and they have not managed to put together more than 40 minutes of good rugby in a match. Until they learn to play for 80 minutes, they will struggle to win matches.
Italy used to be content with giving the ball to the forwards and hoping for the best, but now they are trying to play some attacking rugby as well. Not only do they have a very solid scrum, but they are becoming more dynamic with ball in hand. They have also improved a lot when it comes to their defence.
Gonzalo Quesada's team seems to be coming together nicely, while Gatland, in all honesty, seems a bit lost with the players that he currently has at his disposal. Therefore, this points towards a win for Italy.
Winner Summary
This will be a very close match that will go right down to the wire. Due to the form of both teams, I am going to go against the bookies and back Italy to win. As for the winning margin, let's go for 6 points.
🏉 Italy to win by 6 points!
✔️ Wales v Italy Betting Tips
In this part of my Wales vs Italy betting guide, I am going to provide you with some of my top tips for this game. However, the first tip that I must give you is to remember to gamble responsibly. You can do this by setting up a budget and sticking to it, and by never chasing your losses.
1️⃣ Match Winner: Italy to win
This is one of those matches that could end up going either way, but I am going to back Italy to win due to the fact that I think they are playing better rugby. Furthermore, there is value to be had in the odds that are on offer. If you want to back a win for Italy, then you can find odds of 3.40 at 10Bet Sport.
2️⃣ 3-Way Handicap Winner: Italy (-4)
I would rarely recommend that you give Italy a handicap before the first ball has even been kicked, but I think this is a good option for those who are looking for even higher odds for an Italy win. Since I think the Italians can win by six points, you might want to consider giving them a 4-point disadvantage. You can find odds of 5.75 at All British Sport.
3️⃣ Winning Margin
I always like having a look at the winning margin market because the odds that are on offer are often pretty enticing. If you think that Italy can win by 6 points, then Betiton Sport are offering odds of 10.90 for the Italians to win by 6-10 points.
🎁 Wales v Italy Free Bets and Rugby Betting Promotions
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Match Promotions
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📰 Six Nations News for Wales v Italy on X
You can find more of the latest team news for both Italy and Wales by checking out their feeds on X, formerly called Twitter.
🐉 Wales Updates
🛵 Italy Updates
📺 2023 Italy v Wales Highlights
Do you want to refresh your memory as to what happened the last time these two teams met in the Six Nations? If so, check out the highlights package below.
⚡ Six Nations Wales v Italy Prediction at a Glance
1️⃣ When will Wales v Italy kick off?
This Wales vs Italy match will kick off at 14:15 GMT on the 16th of March.
2️⃣ Where will Wales v Italy be played?
Wales v Italy will take place at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff.
3️⃣ Who is my Wales v Italy winner?
This will be a close match, but I think Italy will win by six points.
4️⃣ What are some Wales v Italy betting tips?
- Match winner tip: Italy to win at 3.40 at 10Bet Sport.
- 3-Way Handicap betting tip:Italy to win (-4) at 5.75 at All British Sport.
5️⃣ Can I use free bets for Wales v Italy?
Yes, there will be plenty of free bets that you can use for this Wales vs Italy game, and the best ones can be found in our "Rugby Betting Promotions" section. Whether you are using free bets or your own money, always make sure to gamble responsibly.
✒️ Sheldon Muchmore - iGaming and Sports Betting Enthusiast
This Wales vs Italy prediction was written by Sheldon Muchmore.
Sheldon is a sports tipster and casino writer from the UK who has a passion for a variety of sports, especially football, rugby, and cricket. He has been involved in the sports betting industry for many years now, and is always eager to provide successful predictions. He is also a dab hand when it comes to the iGaming sector as he has written many casino and slot game reviews.
