Edwards vs Muhammad 2 Prediction Fight Odds & Tips - UFC 304

Leon Edwards vs. Bilal Muhammed Betting Odds

These two have unfinished business in the Octagon, having met in Las Vegas on UFC Fight Night in March 2021. This ended in a no contest, after an errant finger from Rocky caught the eye of Muhammed and he was unable to continue. Rocky had dominated the first round, however, so it’s no surprise that he’s the heavy betting favourite to defeat his opponent in Manchester.

He’s priced at around 1.35 to defeat Muhammed, implying a 74.07% probability of this outcome occurring. Alternatively, you can pick Muhammed to prevail at an average price of 2.88, suggesting that he has just a 34.72% chance of wrestling away the UFC Welterweight belt.

Fighter
Leon Edwards to Win	1.35	1.35	1.40	1.35
Bilal Muhammed to Win	2.88	2.88	2.98	2.88
Draw	TBC	TBC	TBC	TBC

Leon Edwards Overview

There’s little doubt that Edwards is the best welterweight on the planet at the moment, with this 6' 2" southpaw currently embarked on a run of 13 fights without defeat. In fact, he hasn’t tasted defeat since his 13th bout on December 19th, 2015, when he was outpointed by Kamaru Usman in Orlando, Florida.

What’s more, he avenged this defeat in the summer of 2022, as a devasting head kick knocked out Usman in the final round of their UFC 278 bout. This saw Rocky win the UFC welterweight title for the first time, while it earned Edwards the ‘UFC ‘Performance of the Night’ and ‘Knockout of the Year’ awards.

He also took on Usman in his first title defence at UFC 286, earning a majority decision after an intense encounter that saw him land the cleaner blows throughout. Then came his superb victory over Covington, which Edwards dominated from the outset and was ultimately decided by unanimous decision.

Overall, Edwards has won 22 of his 26 MMA bouts and lost just three times, with seven of his victories coming via way of knockout (31.81%). He has submitted three opponents and earned 12 decisions, meaning that 54.54% of his career fights have been decided by the judges.

Bilal Muhammed Overview

Muhammed is four years older than Edwards at 36, while he’s considerably shorter at 5' 11" and has a two-inch reach disadvantage. Muhammed also adopts an orthodox stance and will have to deal with one of the trickiest southpaws around in Edwards, so he’s arguably at a disadvantage before he even steps into the Octagon.

However, he’s also on a superb run of form, having avoided defeat in his last 10 bouts since January 19th, 2019. This sequence has seen him win nine times while consistently fighting at an impressive pace, so there’s little doubt that he’s worthy of competing for a UFC title for the first time in his career.

Like Rocky, he has been particularly impressive in his previous two or three fights. At UFC 280, for example, Muhammed overwhelmed Sean Brady in Abu Dhabi, securing a second round TKO through a blur of punches. He then produced the best performance of his career against the excellent Gilbert Burns at UFC 288, earning a dominant unanimous decision win on the back of a relentlessly high punch volume and accurate striking.

Notwithstanding Muhammed’s relentless pressure and striking ability, he’s best known for his grappling and durability. To this end, only five of his career 23 MMA wins have been achieved by way of knockout (21.73%), while 17 have been determined by decision (73.91%). Like Edwards, he has lost just three of his career bouts, from a total of 27 fights.

Edwards vs Muhammad 2 Betting Offers

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Edwards vs Muhammad 2 Prediction

I’ve already touched on Rocky’s distinct physical advantage, while Edwards is also a slick counter puncher who’s incredibly difficult to hit cleanly (no opponent has ever stopped him during his MMA career). This was evident when he previously fought Muhammed in Nevada, as he willing to engage Muhammed from the outset and easily counter his opponent’s high volume of punches.

He certainly had minimal regard for Muhammed’s speed and power, as he backed his own movement and dominated the first five minutes of the bout. He was also in control in the second round, before Muhammed received an accidental poke in the eye and found himself unable to continue.

'Remember the Name' certainly seemed to struggle with Edwards’ slickness and southpaw stance. He was also vulnerable to Rocky’s accuracy, which is crucial to his counter punching style. During his career, Edwards has recorded a higher significant strike accuracy of 59.36%, which compares favourably to just 50.31% for Muhammed. So, although the latter typically delivers a higher volume of significant strikes, he’s much less precise and focused in his work.

The good news for Muhammed is that he has a higher takedown average than his opponent (1.98 vs 1.25), while he’s also slightly more accurate in his ground work. However, Edwards is a superb all-round fighter who has dramatically improved his own grappling game during his unbeaten run, so Muhammed may not be able to leverage his clinch work to gain any semblance of control during the bout.

Of course, Rocky will still have to contend with his opponent’s experience and durability. So, I’m picking Edwards to win a highly competitive bout, either via late stoppage or unanimous points victory.

Frequently Asked Questions about Leon Edwards vs. Bilal Muhammed

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced sports writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the UFC, Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of UK betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.